Campaign staffers are using internal polling data that has not been made public to make profitable trades on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, according to a new report from NPR. Recently, there have been growing concerns regarding the use of non-public information by sharp prediction market traders more generally, although insider trading on these markets is not explicitly illegal in some cases and can be difficult to track on some platforms.
One unnamed staffer told NPR that they and many other individuals placed bets on the outcome of the election in which they are involved before the public release of new polling data and ended up making money on their trades. There did not appear to be a strong degree of sophistication when it comes to the staffer’s understanding of prediction markets, as the individual was quoted as referring to their bet as a “stock.” The staffer is said to have made thousands of dollars on a single trade, and NPR verified the prediction market data associated with the trade.
A staffer on a separate campaign said they did not place such bets themselves but had seen other staffers do so in the past. “They were placing bets because they had polling and the markets were so topsy turvy,” said the staffer. “They were like, ‘I’m going to go make a quick $5,000.’”
A former 20-year Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) trial lawyer told NPR that the staffer’s prediction market trades could be grounds for an investigation. “There’s probably a pretty good argument that they’re using information that they’re not supposed to use for their benefit,” the former CFTC trial lawyer, Jeff Le Riche, said.
That said, former CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson was quoted as saying, “I don’t believe that the CFTC has developed experience and expertise in policing election positions.”
The insider trading concerns around prediction markets go far beyond elections. Over the past few months, traders who profited on everything from Google’s most searched terms of the year to the operation to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro have been accused of possessing insider information before placing their bets.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket have recently become more aggressive when it comes to rooting out this sort of activity. For example, Kalshi suspended and fined a MrBeast video editor and a California gubernatorial candidate from its platform over insider trading concerns back in February, in addition to similar punishments for “political insider trading” being handed out to three other candidates in other states in April. Additionally, Polymarket worked with U.S. law enforcement in the case regarding alleged insider trading by an individual directly involved in the Maduro operation prior to charges being filed by the U.S. Department of Justice. Both prediction market platforms have also banned insider trading as a general policy and implemented practices to guard against it.
There have also been instances of institutions doing some self-policing when it comes to insider trading on prediction markets, such as the U.S. Senate barring all members and their staff from participating in these kinds of financial trades. Maryland Governor Wes Moore also announced a ban on state employees from using insider information on prediction markets.
Effective immediately, Maryland state government employees are BANNED from using inside information from their jobs to make money on prediction markets.
Government officials should never be able to participate in prediction markets. It creates a conflict of interest for…
— Governor Wes Moore (@GovWesMoore) April 25, 2026
Of course, in these information markets, the thinking is that letting anyone take part produces sharper odds on what might happen next. That feature is often cited as a core strength because the resulting prices could give useful signals to anyone watching the markets. In fact, Federal Reserve researchers reached a similar conclusion in a study of Kalshi contracts on economic indicators released earlier this year.
That said, this openness to insider trading from prediction market purists also creates an uneven playing field for market participants. Traders armed with non-public details can reliably take the other side of bets placed by outsiders who are working from public information and educated guesses.
Regulatory clarity for the industry will likely need to be put together sooner rather than later. A wave of lawsuits is already testing the boundaries, with most of them focused on prediction contracts for sporting events that run afoul of state laws governing sports betting. The CFTC has asserted exclusive federal jurisdiction over these products as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and has sued states, including Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois, to block their enforcement actions. A bipartisan bill that aims to draw a clearer line by reclassifying sports-style contracts as gambling reserved for state oversight was introduced in March. Observers widely expect Congress to settle the question through legislation rather than let the patchwork of litigation continue.
For now, these sorts of stories should indicate to the general public that it may not be a good idea to bet on these markets without insider information because you could certainly be competing with those who do. Volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket have climbed into the billions, and according to a recent Wall Street Journal report, most of those bets are won by an extremely small percentage of accounts. Without an insider tip, the average participant is essentially playing against sharper money that has already priced in details that the rest of the market has yet to see.
