Sir Tony Blair has urged European leaders including Sir Keir Starmer to overhaul their energy strategies to prioritise supply and affordability as the conflict in Iran drives fears of soaring prices.
The former prime minister, writing alongside former Italian premier Matteo Renzi, stressed that while decarbonisation was “essential”, it “cannot be pursued in isolation”. They also warn that geopolitical shocks like the conflict in the Middle East have left Europe “hopelessly exposed”.
Future global leaders in energy will be those capable of providing “abundant, secure and affordable energy at scale,” the pair say in the foreword to a new report from the Tony Blair Institute (TBI).
The warning comes after the Bank of England predicted the average household annual energy bill will rise from £1,641 to close to £1,900 in July and stay at that level for the rest of the year.
The energy crisis triggered by a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could even plunge the UK into recession during the second half of this year, leading think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) has warned.
In their foreword, the former leaders said: “Europe has led the world in climate ambition and made real progress in reducing emissions. That achievement matters. But the global centre of gravity has shifted. The future of the energy system will be determined in economies where demand is rising rapidly – and where the overriding priority is to ensure that supply keeps pace.”
They added: “For years, the energy transition has been understood primarily as a climate challenge, one defined by targets, timelines and emissions reduction. But that framing is no longer sufficient. In a world of geopolitical instability, rising electricity demand and intensifying economic competition, energy has become a question of power in the most literal sense.
“The countries that succeed in the decades ahead will not simply be the ones that decarbonise fastest. They will be the ones that can deliver abundant, secure and affordable energy at scale.”
Europe had the “capabilities to lead in this next phase”, Sir Tony and Mr Renzi said, but warned that doing so would require “clearer narrative, stronger political direction and a renewed focus on delivery”.
“Unless Europe aligns its strategy with that reality, it risks falling behind those already shaping the energy systems, and the economic order, of the future.”
After a row erupted last spring over Sir Tony arguing that limiting fossil fuels in the short term was “doomed to fail”, the foreword takes care not to explicitly criticise net zero policy.
It insists “this is not an argument for weakening climate ambition” but one for “embedding it within a more effective strategy – one that recognises that clean energy succeeds when it helps deliver abundant and affordable power”.
However, the report, authored by TBI senior policy adviser Tone Langengen, singles out decisions of the UK and Denmark to phase out fossil fuel production as having made the region “more exposed to international markets in increasingly unstable times”.
Citing the move among the “mistakes” made in Europe’s energy approach, the paper says: “Fossil fuel was deprioritised while dependence remained high.
“Europe’s long-standing reliance on Russian fossil fuels has now been slowly replaced by dependence on Middle Eastern and American supplies.
“The decisions of key producers like Denmark and the UK to phase out fossil-fuel production have made the region more exposed to international markets in increasingly unstable times.”
The report also recommends that the UK and EU move towards a “common market” relationship in the long term, arguing that Britain should also be allowed to “opt in” to a continental “system planner” designed to coordinate Europe’s electricity sector.
It says: “In the long term, the UK-EU relationship must converge towards a common-market framework – not for political reasons, but because the physical realities of Europe’s interconnected energy systems leave no alternative.”
A Department for Energy Security and Net Zero spokesperson said: “Net zero is the economic opportunity of the 21st century, with clean power being the route to energy sovereignty, lower bills for good and thousands of good jobs in our communities.
“The lesson of yet another fossil fuel crisis is the UK needs to get off the fossil fuel rollercoaster and onto clean homegrown power we control.
“We are driving further and faster for clean homegrown power to bring down bills for good – including decisive action to break the influence of gas on electricity prices.”
