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I’m going to keep it real and say that the overall sentiment that has come up now that I have been back on the Emmys FYC scene is that TV has been “mid” this season, and I can’t think of any major category that exemplifies that more than Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series.
Prior to this month, with the arrival of new contenders from the minds behind the last three winners in a row, the big submissions were a lot of Netflix shows like “Black Rabbit” and “The Beast in Me,” which I would not-so-derogatorily call TNT-coded. Basically, they are adult fare that are entertaining enough, but are more successful as a populist endeavor than a prestige endeavor. You can also add “His and Hers” to that pot, which came a bit later in the season. “Death by Lightning,” which received the best reviews of the bunch, just seems to have not found a big enough audience to maintain momentum. Finally, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” is a different story in that the issue with the third installment of the Ryan Murphy-produced true crime series is one of diminishing returns.
But again, I am not here to beat up on Netflix, which produced all three of those aforementioned shows that won Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series recently. People are watching and enjoying “Beef” Season 2 right now, and the reviews for it only took a slight dip from the original season of the anthology series. There is also a lot of great buzz for Jack Thorne’s adaptation of “Lord of the Flies,” which is the series taking what I like to call the “Baby Reindeer” premiere slot. Long story short, Netflix did not know what it had with “Baby Reindeer” until it was already a hit, and since then it gave fellow U.K. production “Adolescence” (Thorne’s previous series) a similar rollout, which led to even more awards success. So the expectation is that “Lord of the Flies,” which already aired in the U.K., will keep that winning streak going.
Coincidentally, “Baby Reindeer” creator Richard Gadd is the other incoming Limited Series contender with his new HBO series “Half Man” starring him and Jamie Bell. Right now, the impression is that the performances are stronger than the show itself, so while I would not be so quick to write off Gadd’s big follow-up to what was one of the more exciting television phenomena in recent memory, HBO may start making its other big Limited Series submission the priority.
HBO’s “DTF St. Louis” is another one of those starry shows that felt like it came out of nowhere, but it being a week-to-week release has meant that it did not come out the gate a major Emmys player. It has been a slow burn, but the audience has increased every week, and is still increasing, which all bodes very well for it peaking right as Television Academy members start nominations voting in early June. Stars David Harbour, Jason Bateman, and Linda Cardellini have all been the leads of recent Emmy-nominated shows, so there is still that familiarity there with voters that comes in handy. However, if we look at the majority of recent winners in the Limited Series acting categories, the takeaway is that voters seem more eager to crown new stars with an Emmy win rather than have the award go to a known quantity.
Herein lies why I still feel very high on “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” from FX. Though things were shaky going into the show, with critics trying to figure out how would capture a tone that’s not offensive, the final result was an amazing showcase for newcomers Paul Anthony Kelly and Sarah Pigeon that was also considered a return to form for Murphy despite the TV mogul not writing or directing any of the episodes. Awards voters also really get a kick out of actors portraying public figures, so even Grace Gummer as Caroline Kennedy or Alessandro Nivola as Calvin Klein are contenders from the romance series to look out for. Naomi Watts’ Jackie O may be a tougher sell, but creator Connor Hines and company did their best to give her a highlight episode. Anecdotally, “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” has done the best job so far of capturing the zeitgeist.
Now onto Outstanding Movie, where some would argue the less said the better, but if you have kept up with my musings on the Emmys for a while, you may know that this category is one of my fixations. Overall, my strongest takes are that, similar to the Best Original Song category at the Oscars: Even if the field of contenders is bleak, the winner is often a banger (I dare you to say something bad about “Rebel Ridge”). Also, networks need to start acquiring films at film festivals again specifically to be Outstanding Movie contenders. That used to be HBO’s bread and butter, and now the only contender it has in the category, “Miss You, Love You,” premieres at the very end of the eligibility window.
For the sake of brevity though, I will just say that upcoming Netflix release “Remarkably Bright Creatures” starring two-time Oscar winner Sally Field and Lewis Pullman is the most determined to win the Emmy, but Hulu films “Pizza Movie” and “Mike and Nick and Nick and Alice,” which both premiered at SXSW, are the two dark horses gaining traction. I will politely let you all make your own decision on how you feel about the rest of the contenders (though I thoroughly enjoyed both of the Prime Video films starring Priyanka Chopra Jonas that are in the mix).
See IndieWire’s full list of 2026 Emmy predictions, complete with frontrunners, contenders, and long shots on our website. As a reminder, my email is majones@indiewire.com if you’d like to share any feedback.
